Code X Case Skins

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$30.53
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $25.44 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.94%
874 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
33 openings · below min
7 days
80.68%±11.75763 openings
30 days
79.94%±10.98874 openings
since tracking started
79.94%±10.98874 openings
43.0%100.0%157.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h33100.04%±56.5—odds
7d76380.68%±11.8−0.4σodds
30d87479.94%±11.0−0.6σodds
All87479.94%±11.0−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$2,8361.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 6,667$1,7111.0%00.1—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$8521.0%00.3—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$6521.3%00.4—
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4111.6%00.9—
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 500$2181.7%11.70.57×
★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 455$2141.8%71.93.64×
★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 267$1682.5%13.30.31×
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 143$1083.0%56.10.82×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$98.183.9%88.70.92×
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 77$77.744.0%1511.41.32×
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33$69.008.1%2726.21.03×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$68.328.1%2726.21.03×
G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$57.5011.3%4343.70.98×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 20$56.8411.2%3843.70.87×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$24.969.8%9687.41.10×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified10.0%$23.269.1%8987.41.02×
G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified20.0%$19.4115.3%165174.80.94×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted20.0%$4.103.2%174174.81.00×
P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted20.0%$1.331.0%178174.81.02×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: code-x), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$30.5383.33%20
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.7%Covert 0.0%restricted 44.4%Mythical 0.2%violet 0.7%classified 46.0%best hit —