The Mansion
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$1.05
Advertised RTP
83.07%
EV $0.87 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.11%
29.9K openings, odds method
Variance
1160.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 4,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $1,943 | 11.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,891 | 21.7% | 6 | 3.0 | 1.97× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,650 | 18.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 10,000 | $1,548 | 17.7% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,280 | 14.7% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.32× |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $721 | 8.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 9,091 | $237 | 3.0% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.50× |
| Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 99.9% | $0.04 | 4.6% | 30,371 | 30370.9 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: the-mansion), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.07%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.05 | 83.07% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%restricted 0.0%epic 0.0%consumer 99.9%best hit $1,891 (1,801x)