Fiery Night Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$36.50
Advertised RTP
83.30%
EV $30.41 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.78%
977 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 983 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fiery-night), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specSixBee$36.50$1.250.03x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted✪ zer0^v^$36.50$23.840.65x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $36.50 | 83.30% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%covert 2.7%classified 5.9%restricted 41.0%industrial 2.1%Ancient 7.0%mil spec 41.2%best hit $723 (19.81x)