Solaris CS2 Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $0.83 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.93%
16K openings, odds method
Variance
104.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 286
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $265 | 15.9% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.12× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $197 | 23.6% | 16 | 16.1 | 0.99× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $108 | 26.0% | 41 | 32.2 | 1.27× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 420 | $57.97 | 16.6% | 41 | 38.3 | 1.07× |
| SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · 1 | 49.7% | $0.23 | 13.7% | 7,971 | 8004.0 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 49.7% | $0.07 | 4.2% | 8,026 | 8005.3 | 1.00× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: solaris), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.00 | 83.29% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 49.7%extraordinary 0.6%industrial 49.7%best hit $265 (264.7x)