Red Mystery Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $8.33 from 74 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.26%
1,531 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,535 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: red-mystery), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 83.33% | 74 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 18.9%Covert 0.0%Restricted 0.1%restricted 51.4%mil spec 4.3%#8847ff 13.1%Legendary 2.8%#d32ee6 1.3%#d32ce6 2.0%Mythical 6.0%best hit —