CS2 Uninhabitated Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$14.50
Advertised RTP
83.30%
EV $12.08 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.57%
690 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 690 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: uninhabited), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.50 | 83.30% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%rare 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%classified 33.2%red 0.5%covert knife 0.7%Mythical 22.0%restricted 24.0%milspec 14.0%best hit $734 (50.65x)