Kawaii Box
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$173.00
Advertised RTP
84.29%
EV $145.83 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.22%
1,223 openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,223 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: kawaii-box), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $173 | 84.29% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $175 | 83.33% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.8%contraband 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.5%epic 0.5%classified 30.0%mil spec 12.0%rare 2.0%gold 2.0%Ancient 4.0%restricted 14.0%blue 5.0%consumer 5.9%best hit $6,000 (34.29x)