Nihon Treasure Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$100.00
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $83.29 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.39%
425 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 425 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,956 | 23.5% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.65× |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $1,299 | 19.5% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.56× |
| ★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 29 | $337 | 14.2% | 14 | 14.9 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $202 | 9.7% | 28 | 17.0 | 1.65× |
| FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 19 | $144 | 9.1% | 17 | 22.3 | 0.76× |
| AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink | 15.0% | $51.00 | 9.2% | 63 | 63.8 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified | 16.0% | $36.26 | 7.0% | 76 | 68.0 | 1.12× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $20.44 | 4.9% | 65 | 85.0 | 0.76× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 34.0% | $7.47 | 3.0% | 152 | 144.5 | 1.05× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: nihon-treasure), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 83.29% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 37.0%covert 14.0%pink 15.0%#d32ee6 34.0%best hit $1,956 (19.56x)