XMAS '23
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$25.77
Advertised RTP
80.83%
EV $20.83 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.02%
1,115 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: xmas-23), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.77 | 80.83% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.6%covert 3.6%Mythical 0.5%classified 30.7%industrial 4.9%restricted 39.0%#8847ff 20.8%best hit $540 (20.96x)