Survivor Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$36.08
Advertised RTP
80.39%
EV $29.01 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.57%
570 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 570 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: survivor), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $36.08 | 80.39% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%red 2.5%classified 13.0%Mythical 12.5%blue 10.0%mil spec 17.5%industrial 5.0%Legendary 5.0%restricted 12.5%pink 5.0%gray 7.0%best hit —