Wahy

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$91.40
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $76.17 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.59%
441 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.46%±52.59108 openings
7 days
65.56%±29.68339 openings
30 days
69.59%±26.03441 openings
since tracking started
69.59%±26.03441 openings
27.0%80.3%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10880.46%±52.6−0.1σodds
7d33965.56%±29.7−1.2σodds
30d44169.59%±26.0−1.0σodds
All44169.59%±26.0−1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 441 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: wahy), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$91.4083.33%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 25.3%gold 3.5%covert 9.0%#ffd700 10.0%Ancient 10.0%Mythical 10.0%Legendary 12.2%restricted 20.0%best hit $1,130 (12.36x)