Spooky Loot Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$20.00

Advertised RTP

83.26%

EV $16.65 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.27%

963 openings, odds method

Variance

10.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

100 openings · below min

7 days

87.96%±23.30722 openings

30 days

84.27%±20.18963 openings

since tracking started

84.27%±20.18963 openings

11.5%74.8%138.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	100	74.79%±62.6	—	odds
7d	722	87.96%±23.3	+0.4σ	odds
30d	963	84.27%±20.2	+0.1σ	odds
All	963	84.27%±20.2	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 963 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 5,000	$2,160	2.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,000	$1,114	3.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$823	3.7%	3	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$698	5.0%	2	1.2	1.73×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 800	$669	5.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$160	4.8%	8	4.8	1.66×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$159	4.8%	3	4.8	0.62×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$154	4.6%	6	4.8	1.25×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$151	4.5%	4	4.8	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$143	8.6%	8	9.6	0.83×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$132	9.1%	11	11.1	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$97.64	8.8%	11	14.4	0.76×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$40.18	7.7%	21	30.8	0.68×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$34.64	8.3%	45	38.5	1.17×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	10.0%	$8.46	5.1%	93	96.3	0.97×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$7.58	4.6%	92	96.3	0.96×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.8%	$4.96	3.2%	102	103.6	0.98×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	13.0%	$2.51	2.0%	132	125.2	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	13.0%	$2.02	1.6%	118	125.2	0.94×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	30.0%	$1.45	2.6%	304	288.9	1.05×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: spooky-loot), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertVan Leyton$20.00$82341.15x2d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertkevinlowroller$20.00$82341.15x6d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert乇乂丅尺卂丅卄工匚匚$20.00$82341.15x6d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classifiedabsorbcathedral958$20.00$69834.89x3d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classifiedas21999$20.00$69834.89x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalNaruto_LoquillÖ$20.00$2.510.13x24m

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffJ M | レッドワン$20.00$1.450.07x24m

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary陈大佬$20.00$8.460.42x41m

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertAT11$20.00$97.644.88x41m

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] Bane$20.00$97.644.88x1h

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[BOT] Anton Chigurh$20.00$1.450.07x1h

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[BOT] Sauron$20.00$1.450.07x1h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet[BOT] Hans Landa$20.00$2.020.10x1h

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalljl990608$20.00$2.510.13x1h

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[BOT] Patrick Bateman$20.00$1.450.07x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.26%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.00	83.26%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%gold 0.1%covert 4.2%classified 14.6%mil spec 0.1%red 1.0%restricted 14.0%Legendary 10.0%Mythical 13.0%violet 13.0%#8847ff 30.0%best hit $823 (41.15x)