Bloody Case CS2 (CSGO)
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $16.66 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.18%
973 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,009 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: bloody-case), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.29% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.1%covert 2.7%extraordinary 1.6%rare 0.2%restricted 6.0%epic 0.2%classified 14.6%violet 5.0%Legendary 6.0%mil spec 22.0%blue 41.6%best hit $1,105 (55.25x)