Prisma 2 Case CS2 (CSGO)

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$3.93
Advertised RTP
83.24%
EV $3.27 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.62%
5,232 openings, odds method
Variance
13.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82.98%±28.86626 openings
7 days
86.47%±11.124,219 openings
30 days
85.62%±9.985,232 openings
since tracking started
85.62%±9.985,232 openings
53.5%83.0%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h62682.98%±28.9−0.0σodds
7d4,21986.47%±11.1+0.6σodds
30d5,23285.62%±9.98+0.5σodds
All5,23285.62%±9.98+0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,250 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$6040.9%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$6040.9%00.3—
★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$5290.8%00.3—
★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$4080.6%10.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 20,000$3790.6%00.3—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$3521.1%00.5—
★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 10,000$3491.1%10.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$3171.0%20.5—
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$3020.9%00.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 10,000$2530.8%00.5—
★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$2200.7%10.5—
★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$2150.7%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 2,000$1752.7%22.60.76×
★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1732.6%42.61.52×
★ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1452.2%32.61.14×
★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1382.1%42.61.52×
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1141.7%32.61.14×
★ Ursus Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1041.6%22.60.76×
★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$88.592.7%95.31.71×
★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 1,000$70.132.1%55.30.95×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$55.691.7%35.30.57×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$51.851.6%45.30.76×
MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 500$40.732.5%1110.51.05×
P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$13.514.1%5852.51.10×
SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$8.245.0%100105.00.95×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$8.145.0%106105.01.01×
Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$7.827.2%140157.50.89×
SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$6.485.9%161157.51.02×
AWP | Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 33$6.265.7%184157.51.17×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 14$3.717.9%358367.80.97×
CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff10.0%$1.775.4%530525.01.01×
MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare16.0%$1.507.3%857840.01.02×
AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)weapon · milspec16.0%$0.874.3%804840.00.96×
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue18.0%$0.784.3%940945.00.99×
Negev | Prototype (Factory New)weapon · Rare18.0%$0.764.2%957945.01.01×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: prisma-2-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.24%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$3.9383.24%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%Covert 0.1%sunny 0.0%rare 0.0%covert knife 0.0%gold 0.1%classified 0.4%restricted 11.0%#4b69ff 13.0%mil spec 7.0%Rare 34.0%milspec 16.0%blue 18.0%best hit $408 (103.8x)