CS2 Christmas Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$6.51

Advertised RTP

83.17%

EV $5.41 from 129 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.78%

2,374 openings, odds method

Variance

25.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59.05%±67.05219 openings

7 days

85.50%±23.171,835 openings

30 days

88.78%±20.372,374 openings

since tracking started

88.78%±20.372,374 openings

-0.5%63.3%127.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	219	59.05%±67.1	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,835	85.50%±23.2	+0.2σ	odds
30d	2,374	88.78%±20.4	+0.5σ	odds
All	2,374	88.78%±20.4	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values129 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,432 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$2,263	2.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$1,187	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$1,179	1.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$1,058	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,019	0.9%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$973	0.9%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$940	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$795	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$654	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20,000	$652	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$616	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$615	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$577	0.5%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$540	5.0%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$522	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$522	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$510	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$464	0.6%	1	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 14,286	$463	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 14,286	$437	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$263	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$253	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$245	0.5%	1	0.2	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$223	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$180	0.5%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$174	0.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$159	0.6%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$150	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$115	0.6%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$114	0.6%	3	0.7	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$110	0.7%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$107	0.7%	1	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,857	$107	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,857	$103	0.7%	2	0.9	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,857	$102	0.7%	1	0.9	—
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 2,500	$99.22	0.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,222	$84.38	0.7%	1	1.1	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$82.33	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$77.61	0.7%	2	1.2	1.64×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$76.25	0.7%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 1,818	$76.14	0.8%	0	1.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$72.44	0.8%	1	1.5	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$69.50	0.8%	3	1.6	1.90×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$66.75	0.9%	2	1.7	1.17×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$64.44	0.8%	3	1.7	1.76×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$63.49	0.8%	3	1.7	1.76×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$56.62	0.8%	1	1.8	0.55×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$53.01	0.7%	3	1.8	1.64×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$50.87	0.8%	1	1.9	0.51×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,250	$50.46	0.7%	1	1.9	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$50.11	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,176	$47.68	0.7%	2	2.1	0.97×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$39.90	0.7%	0	2.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,053	$38.07	0.7%	1	2.3	0.43×
SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,000	$32.38	0.6%	1	2.4	0.41×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 800	$31.94	0.7%	2	3.0	0.66×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 769	$31.79	0.8%	1	3.2	0.32×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 769	$31.21	0.7%	2	3.2	0.63×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 667	$27.46	0.8%	5	3.6	1.37×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 556	$22.88	0.8%	2	4.4	0.46×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 541	$22.31	0.8%	0	4.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 526	$22.08	0.8%	9	4.6	1.95×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 417	$20.82	0.9%	6	5.8	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 370	$19.92	1.0%	10	6.6	1.52×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 303	$18.18	1.1%	10	8.0	1.25×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$17.94	1.3%	8	9.7	0.82×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 233	$17.28	1.4%	13	10.5	1.24×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 154	$13.68	1.6%	7	15.8	0.44×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$13.61	1.7%	19	16.8	1.13×
MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$13.56	1.8%	16	17.0	0.94×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 137	$13.41	1.8%	22	17.8	1.24×
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$13.05	1.9%	19	19.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$10.80	2.0%	30	24.3	1.23×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$8.22	1.5%	32	24.3	1.32×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$7.82	1.4%	18	24.3	0.74×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$7.29	1.3%	24	24.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$7.21	1.3%	33	24.3	1.36×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$7.05	1.3%	26	24.3	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$6.24	1.2%	27	24.3	1.11×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$6.10	1.1%	23	24.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 89	$5.57	1.2%	32	27.4	1.17×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$5.32	1.1%	26	27.4	0.95×
P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$5.12	1.1%	24	27.4	0.88×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$4.97	1.1%	30	29.2	1.03×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$4.91	1.1%	33	30.4	1.09×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$4.80	1.1%	31	30.4	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$4.68	1.1%	33	30.4	1.09×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$4.68	1.1%	28	30.4	0.92×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$4.66	1.1%	26	30.4	0.86×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$4.62	1.1%	37	30.4	1.22×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$4.53	1.0%	28	30.4	0.92×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 80	$4.16	1.0%	43	30.4	1.41×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$4.06	0.9%	29	30.4	0.95×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 80	$3.79	0.9%	25	30.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$3.49	0.8%	30	30.4	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$3.38	0.8%	31	30.4	1.02×
P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$3.30	0.8%	21	30.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 80	$3.24	0.7%	31	30.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$3.23	0.7%	32	30.4	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$3.03	0.7%	27	31.6	0.85×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$2.44	0.7%	30	36.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$2.33	0.6%	43	36.5	1.18×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$1.73	0.5%	35	36.5	0.96×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 57	$1.07	0.3%	41	42.6	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$0.85	0.3%	39	42.6	0.92×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 57	$0.79	0.3%	46	42.6	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$0.78	0.3%	34	42.6	0.80×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$0.72	0.2%	46	42.6	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.67	0.2%	49	48.5	1.01×
Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.66	0.2%	43	48.6	0.88×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.66	0.2%	55	48.6	1.13×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.65	0.2%	52	48.6	1.07×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.63	0.2%	43	48.6	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.54	0.2%	48	48.6	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 50	$0.43	0.2%	51	48.6	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.37	0.1%	57	48.6	1.17×
P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.37	0.1%	54	48.6	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$0.33	0.1%	44	51.7	0.85×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 47	$0.32	0.1%	66	51.7	1.28×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 47	$0.32	0.1%	50	51.7	0.97×
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 47	$0.31	0.1%	50	51.7	0.97×
Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 44	$0.26	0.1%	53	54.7	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 44	$0.17	0.1%	59	54.7	1.08×
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 44	$0.15	0.1%	40	54.7	0.73×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 44	$0.14	0.1%	49	54.7	0.90×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 40	$0.09	0.0%	55	60.6	0.91×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 37	$0.05	0.0%	65	65.7	0.99×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 39	$0.05	0.0%	59	62.0	0.95×
Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 37	$0.04	0.0%	70	65.7	1.07×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: cs2-christmas), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] T-1000$6.51$973149.4x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary♥☆★ŁǝŁƝƗƈǝƊªƦkŁ★☆♥$6.51$795122.1x2d

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertSasakiasahi$6.51$54082.95x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$6.51$46471.32x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · light blueLemon$6.51$0.430.07x17m

MP7 | Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecGl\u00fcck$6.51$0.320.05x17m

P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLemon$6.51$5.120.79x17m

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecGl\u00fcck$6.51$0.150.02x17m

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Well-Worn)weapon · RareLemon$6.51$0.310.05x17m

MP7 | Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecGl\u00fcck$6.51$0.320.05x17m

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLemon$6.51$4.970.76x17m

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkGl\u00fcck$6.51$4.620.71x17m

MP7 | Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecLemon$6.51$0.320.05x17m

SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · light blueGl\u00fcck$6.51$0.430.07x17m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.17%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$6.51	83.17%	129

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.3%extraordinary 0.2%restricted 17.4%classified 11.0%covert 0.7%covert knife 0.0%gold 0.1%sunny 0.0%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%violet 6.9%mil spec 9.6%Classified 1.2%#4b69ff 6.5%Rare 2.3%pink 5.8%Legendary 3.4%Mythical 3.0%Restricted 1.3%#8847ff 6.0%light blue 4.3%milspec 4.4%industrial 6.9%consumer 8.0%best hit $973 (149.4x)