Shattered Web Case CS2 (CSGO)

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$6.77
Advertised RTP
83.25%
EV $5.64 from 64 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.52%
1,576 openings, odds method
Variance
13.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
69.94%±37.24383 openings
7 days
79.54%±19.791,356 openings
30 days
77.52%±18.361,576 openings
since tracking started
77.52%±18.361,576 openings
32.0%70.0%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h38369.94%±37.2−0.7σodds
7d1,35679.54%±19.8−0.4σodds
30d1,57677.52%±18.4−0.6σodds
All1,57677.52%±18.4−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,576 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$1,4291.3%00.1—
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$1,3401.2%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$1,2371.1%00.1—
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$8370.7%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$7540.7%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$6760.6%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$6090.5%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$5430.5%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$5010.4%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$4880.4%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$4680.4%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$4360.4%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$4100.4%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$3830.3%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$3810.3%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$3770.3%00.1—
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$3530.3%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$3350.3%00.1—
★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$3240.3%10.1—
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$3220.3%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$3050.3%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$2990.3%00.1—
★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2720.2%00.1—
★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2520.2%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$2480.2%00.1—
★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$2450.2%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2300.2%00.1—
★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$2220.2%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2210.2%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2150.2%00.1—
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$2140.2%00.1—
MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$2071.8%00.8—
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2050.2%00.1—
★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2010.2%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$2000.2%00.1—
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$1950.3%00.2—
★ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 10,000$1870.3%00.2—
★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1640.3%10.2—
★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1630.3%00.2—
★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1590.3%00.2—
★ Survival Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1580.3%00.2—
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 10,000$1540.3%00.2—
★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1450.3%10.2—
Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$1430.3%00.2—
★ Survival Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1380.2%00.2—
★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$1340.2%00.2—
★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 10,000$1330.2%00.2—
★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 10,000$1300.2%00.2—
★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$1232.2%31.61.90×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$1172.1%01.60.00×
★ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$1172.1%21.61.27×
★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 1,000$1142.0%31.61.90×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,000$94.651.7%21.61.27×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$58.061.0%41.62.54×
P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 400$29.831.3%83.92.03×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 333$17.840.9%34.70.63×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 200$16.011.4%67.90.76×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$9.001.6%1815.81.14×
M249 | Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$6.402.3%3031.50.95×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec10.0%$4.658.3%161157.61.02×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec10.0%$4.187.4%175157.61.11×
Nova | Plume (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$3.6916.4%393394.01.00×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$3.6316.1%377394.00.96×
SCAR-20 | Torn (Factory New)weapon · mil spec25.0%$3.1714.1%388394.00.98×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: shattered-web-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.25%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$6.7783.25%64
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.0%covert 0.1%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.0%gold 0.0%epic 0.0%knifes 0.0%covert knife 0.3%rare 0.1%classified 0.0%restricted 1.3%#d32ee6 0.1%mil spec 98.0%best hit —