Recoil Case CSGO
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$1.80
Advertised RTP
83.29%
EV $1.50 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.05%
9,271 openings, odds method
Variance
132.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 455
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,279 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: recoil-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.80 | 83.29% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%legendary 0.0%Extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%red 0.0%covert 0.0%Immortal 0.1%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.2%restricted 1.0%Mythical 2.0%Rare 81.3%milspec 5.0%violet 10.0%best hit $1,029 (571.5x)