Fragadelphia
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
83.21%
EV $0.83 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.36%
12.4K openings, odds method
Variance
110.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fragadelphia), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.00 | 83.21% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.1%restricted 2.5%classified 0.6%red 0.0%Mythical 0.3%Rare 1.0%mil spec 23.4%milspec 18.0%blue 18.0%#4b69ff 18.0%light blue 18.0%best hit $497 (496.9x)