Mine Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$32.65
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $27.20 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.50%
953 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 953 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: mine-case), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $32.65 | 83.32% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%classified 10.1%restricted 24.0%covert 3.0%sunny 0.1%Immortal 0.1%Restricted 2.0%#8847ff 3.0%blue 16.7%pink 5.0%mil spec 11.0%violet 5.0%Mythical 5.0%Rare 13.0%best hit $1,297 (39.72x)