Hells Bells
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$2.07
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $1.72 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.21%
5,721 openings, odds method
Variance
25.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 92
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,734 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: hells-bells), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.07 | 83.31% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 14.0%covert 0.9%legendary 0.0%restricted 2.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 0.6%sunny 0.1%Ancient 0.1%red 0.1%industrial 36.1%Legendary 0.5%milspec 2.0%mil spec 17.0%violet 12.0%consumer 14.6%best hit $375 (181.2x)