chinese new year 2026

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$35.00

Advertised RTP

83.32%

EV $29.16 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.11%

617 openings, odds method

Variance

5.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74 openings · below min

7 days

77.73%±21.71469 openings

30 days

87.11%±18.93617 openings

since tracking started

87.11%±18.93617 openings

24.0%79.5%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	74	79.52%±54.7	—	odds
7d	469	77.73%±21.7	−0.5σ	odds
30d	617	87.11%±18.9	+0.4σ	odds
All	617	87.11%±18.9	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 617 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$3,337	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,237	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$2,620	1.8%	1	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$2,084	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 5,000	$1,728	1.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,594	1.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,179	2.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$652	2.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$407	1.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$279	1.0%	2	0.6	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$244	0.8%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$103	0.9%	3	1.5	1.94×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 370	$91.62	0.8%	2	1.7	1.20×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$75.07	1.3%	2	3.1	0.65×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$69.12	2.4%	4	6.2	0.65×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$57.49	2.0%	4	6.2	0.65×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$49.91	3.4%	13	12.3	1.05×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$46.22	3.2%	8	12.3	0.65×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$37.06	5.1%	26	24.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	88.4%	$21.51	65.2%	551	545.6	1.01×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chinese-new-year-2026), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] Sauron$35.00$2,62074.85x7d

★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert[BOT] Darth Vader$35.00$65218.63x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Voldemort$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Bane$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Hans Landa$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] T-1000$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] John Doe$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDave$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] John Doe$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Patrick Bateman$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Sauron$35.00$21.510.61x6h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Max Cady$35.00$21.510.61x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$35.00	83.32%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 7.1%Covert 0.0%classified 92.4%best hit $2,620 (74.85x)