Quick Win

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$0.15

Advertised RTP

83.28%

EV $0.12 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.41%

5,451 openings, odds method

Variance

33.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.99%±33.721,130 openings

7 days

86.67%±15.705,211 openings

30 days

85.41%±15.355,451 openings

since tracking started

85.41%±15.355,451 openings

34.5%69.0%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,130	68.99%±33.7	−0.8σ	odds
7d	5,211	86.67%±15.7	+0.4σ	odds
30d	5,451	85.41%±15.4	+0.3σ	odds
All	5,451	85.41%±15.4	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,451 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$51.22	4.1%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$35.51	4.3%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$27.26	4.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$15.73	3.8%	3	1.6	1.83×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,429	$7.96	4.5%	3	3.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,000	$4.31	3.5%	6	5.5	1.10×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$2.18	2.3%	6	7.1	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$1.55	1.9%	8	8.2	0.98×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1.07	1.7%	10	10.9	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$0.88	2.1%	20	16.4	1.22×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.65	5.2%	54	54.5	0.99×
MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.41	9.8%	160	163.5	0.98×
FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.30	9.6%	217	218.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$0.15	6.0%	298	272.6	1.09×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.10	5.6%	388	381.3	1.02×
Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	25.0%	$0.06	12.0%	1,324	1362.8	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer	26.0%	$0.05	10.4%	1,406	1417.3	0.99×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	28.0%	$0.04	9.0%	1,546	1525.2	1.01×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: quick-win), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientThorvold$0.15$51.22341.5x1d

AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified[BOT] Dr. Evil$0.15$35.51236.7x6d

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] HAL 9000$0.15$15.73104.9x2d

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1874901$0.15$15.73104.9x4d

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] Darth Vader$0.15$15.73104.9x6d

MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalHLXG$0.15$7.9653.07x1h

MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical[BOT] Alonzo Harris$0.15$7.9653.07x3d

MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$0.15$7.9653.07x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerArmani$0.15$0.040.27x11m

P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerOkja$0.15$0.040.27x11m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial✪Levo_Gameplay$0.15$0.151.00x11m

Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumerMarreta 2010$0.15$0.050.33x11m

Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ffMaMen Juan$0.15$0.060.40x11m

P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerSchlub$0.15$0.040.27x11m

Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumerArmani$0.15$0.050.33x11m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialOkja$0.15$0.151.00x11m

Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff✪Levo_Gameplay$0.15$0.060.40x11m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialMarreta 2010$0.15$0.151.00x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.15	83.28%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%classified 0.1%Mythical 0.2%restricted 0.8%mil spec 8.0%industrial 5.0%Uncommon 7.0%#87c7ff 25.0%consumer 54.0%best hit $51.22 (341.5x)