Noob Boost
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$0.25
Advertised RTP
83.27%
EV $0.21 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.95%
4,519 openings, odds method
Variance
52.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,519 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: noob-boost), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.27%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.25 | 83.27% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 0.0%covert 0.0%Legendary 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 0.2%#8847ff 2.3%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%mil spec 5.0%milspec 10.0%light blue 15.0%industrial 25.4%#87c7ff 37.0%best hit $75.05 (300.2x)