Welcome Grey
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$0.20
Advertised RTP
83.19%
EV $0.17 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.04%
2,034 openings, odds method
Variance
25.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,034 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: welcome-grey), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.19%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 83.19% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.1%uncommon 0.0%rare 0.0%Legendary 0.0%restricted 0.3%#8847ff 1.4%Mythical 0.1%violet 1.5%Restricted 1.0%Rare 20.2%light blue 20.5%blueLight 27.5%#5e98d9 27.5%best hit $50.00 (250.0x)