G2 Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$46.66
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $38.88 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.02%
198 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
24 openings · below min
7 days
90.58%±22.96133 openings
30 days
91.02%±18.82198 openings
since tracking started
91.02%±18.82198 openings
22.0%76.8%131.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2476.80%±54.1—odds
7d13390.58%±23.0+0.6σodds
30d19891.02%±18.8+0.8σodds
All19891.02%±18.8+0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$2,3560.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 1,000$7702.0%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$5251.4%00.2—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$5101.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 200$3204.1%01.0—
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 200$2903.7%31.0—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 200$2853.7%21.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$2503.2%11.0—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$2303.0%61.0—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200$1852.4%21.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$1752.3%01.0—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 200$1722.2%11.0—
MP9 | Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 200$1552.0%11.0—
P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$1203.1%12.00.51×
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$1153.0%22.01.01×
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$1102.8%22.01.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 67$1003.9%13.00.34×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20$75.009.8%610.10.60×
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 18$60.008.6%1111.10.99×
MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade40.0%$18.0018.5%8279.21.04×
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified40.0%$18.0018.5%7779.20.97×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: g2), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$46.6683.32%21
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 9.8%restricted 2.1%Covert 1.0%red 0.5%#eb4b4b 1.5%classified 45.1%Mil Spec Grade 40.0%best hit —