Heroic
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$44.00
Advertised RTP
83.25%
EV $36.63 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.95%
220 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: heroic), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $44.00 | 83.25% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%covert 8.8%legendary 0.1%sunny 0.5%covert knife 0.5%red 7.5%Ancient 12.0%restricted 15.0%Legendary 55.2%best hit $705 (16.02x)