BREAKOUT
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$10.73
Advertised RTP
81.46%
EV $8.74 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.68%
11 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 11 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/breakout/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 81.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $10.73 | 81.46% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $10.73 | 81.38% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $10.73 | 81.21% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $10.73 | 81.01% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $10.73 | 81.20% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $10.73 | 83.43% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $10.73 | 81.74% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $10.73 | 80.98% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $10.73 | 81.14% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $10.73 | 82.40% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%extraordinary 0.5%covert knife 0.6%Immortal 0.2%classified 21.9%Mythical 14.8%Mil Spec Grade 4.2%industrial 9.8%#8847ff 0.4%#4b69ff 0.4%restricted 14.8%milspec 4.6%Consumer Grade 4.6%Common 4.9%violet 9.1%Consumer 4.5%mil spec 2.4%Mil Spec 0.9%best hit —