CHROMA-3
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$3.49
Advertised RTP
119.45%
EV $4.17 from 51 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.69%
137 openings, odds method
Variance
34.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values51 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/chroma-3/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 119.45%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.49 | 119.45% | 51 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.49 | 109.06% | 51 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.49 | 108.44% | 51 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.49 | 106.46% | 51 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.49 | 107.14% | 51 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.49 | 106.15% | 51 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.49 | 110.12% | 51 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.49 | 104.50% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.49 | 104.57% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.49 | 103.51% | 51 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 4.0%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.2%Covert 0.1%Legendary 0.3%mil spec 2.6%classified 3.1%pink 0.7%restricted 21.5%Mil Spec Grade 5.1%#d32ee6 0.4%consumer 4.3%Restricted 4.2%Consumer Grade 11.5%violet 3.9%industrial 3.9%light blue 4.0%Rare 10.6%#4b69ff 6.5%Industrial Grade 7.0%gray 3.6%milspec 2.5%best hit —