CLASSIFIED

A case on DROP.SKIN (rarity), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$2.99

Advertised RTP

61.05%

EV $1.83 from 176 items

Observed RTP, 30d

32.31%

521 openings, odds method

Variance

4.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 26

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85 openings · below min

7 days

30.08%±19.22470 openings

30 days

32.31%±18.28521 openings

since tracking started

32.31%±18.28521 openings

-0.5%38.3%77.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 59.60% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (14.03% – 50.59%, 521 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	85	30.37%±45.7	—	odds
7d	470	30.08%±19.2	−3.0σ	odds
30d	521	32.31%±18.3	−2.9σ	odds
All	521	32.31%±18.3	−2.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values176 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 521 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 30,310	$270	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 28,335	$252	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 23,411	$208	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,532	$183	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18,635	$166	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 15,917	$142	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,595	$130	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13,969	$124	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 13,657	$122	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13,285	$118	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13,046	$116	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,838	$114	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 12,663	$113	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12,463	$111	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 12,223	$109	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,005	$107	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,217	$99.87	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,986	$97.81	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 10,567	$94.08	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,118	$90.08	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,728	$77.70	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,484	$75.54	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,158	$72.64	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 7,189	$64.00	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,683	$59.50	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,652	$59.22	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,736	$51.07	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,419	$48.25	0.5%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,062	$45.07	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,939	$43.97	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,928	$43.87	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,704	$41.88	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,642	$41.33	0.5%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,318	$38.44	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,316	$38.42	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,140	$36.86	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,987	$35.49	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,957	$35.23	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,940	$35.08	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,640	$32.41	0.5%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 3,590	$31.96	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,457	$30.78	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,414	$30.39	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,378	$30.08	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,281	$29.21	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,187	$28.38	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,150	$28.05	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 3,128	$27.85	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,095	$27.55	0.5%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,032	$26.99	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,005	$26.76	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,955	$26.31	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,955	$26.31	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,918	$25.98	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,883	$25.67	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,834	$25.23	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,812	$25.03	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,692	$23.97	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,659	$23.68	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,590	$23.06	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,566	$22.84	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,444	$21.76	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,428	$21.62	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,396	$21.34	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,351	$20.93	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,331	$20.76	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,321	$20.66	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,301	$20.48	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,293	$20.41	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,291	$20.40	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,246	$20.00	0.5%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,201	$19.59	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,185	$19.45	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,916	$17.06	0.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,891	$16.83	0.5%	0	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,879	$16.73	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,873	$16.67	0.5%	0	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,752	$15.60	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$15.09	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,530	$14.68	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,505	$14.58	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,502	$14.56	0.2%	2	0.1	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,500	$14.55	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,429	$14.26	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,409	$14.18	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,379	$14.05	0.2%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,376	$14.04	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,366	$14.00	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,342	$13.90	0.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,321	$13.81	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,315	$13.79	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 3,312	$13.77	0.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,309	$13.76	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,306	$13.75	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,300	$13.72	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,284	$13.66	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,128	$13.01	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,075	$12.79	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,063	$12.74	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,062	$12.73	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,057	$12.71	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,054	$12.70	0.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,036	$12.63	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,021	$12.56	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,009	$12.51	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,966	$12.34	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,964	$12.33	0.2%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,964	$12.33	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,943	$12.24	0.2%	0	0.2	—
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,914	$12.12	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,900	$12.06	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,896	$12.05	0.2%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,884	$12.00	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,828	$11.76	0.2%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,704	$11.24	0.2%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,639	$10.98	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,556	$10.63	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,539	$10.56	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,512	$10.45	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$10.40	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,487	$10.34	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,461	$10.23	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,369	$9.85	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,348	$9.77	0.2%	0	0.2	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,315	$9.63	0.2%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,312	$9.61	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,272	$9.45	0.2%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,239	$9.31	0.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,234	$9.29	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$9.04	0.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,151	$8.95	0.2%	0	0.2	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,112	$8.78	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,100	$8.73	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,100	$8.73	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,072	$8.62	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,021	$8.40	0.2%	0	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,983	$8.25	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,715	$7.13	0.2%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,691	$7.03	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,685	$7.01	0.2%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,603	$6.67	0.2%	1	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,591	$6.62	0.2%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,563	$6.50	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$6.30	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,453	$6.04	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,448	$6.02	0.2%	0	0.4	—
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,433	$5.96	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,423	$5.92	0.2%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,400	$5.82	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,363	$5.67	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,287	$5.35	0.2%	0	0.4	—
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,200	$4.99	0.2%	0	0.4	—
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,196	$4.97	0.2%	0	0.4	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,151	$4.79	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 1,124	$4.68	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,115	$4.64	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,088	$4.52	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,051	$4.37	0.2%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,003	$4.17	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 988	$4.11	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 967	$4.02	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 948	$3.94	0.2%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 913	$3.80	0.2%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 873	$3.63	0.2%	0	0.6	—
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 794	$3.30	0.2%	3	0.7	—
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$2.80	1.5%	11	5.2	2.11×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$2.72	3.0%	8	10.4	0.77×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$1.53	3.3%	21	20.8	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$1.43	3.9%	29	26.1	1.11×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$1.18	4.5%	27	36.5	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.13	4.9%	42	41.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.01	5.0%	54	46.9	1.15×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	11.0%	$0.72	4.3%	52	57.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	12.0%	$0.57	3.7%	71	62.5	1.14×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	14.0%	$0.43	3.3%	80	72.9	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	20.5%	$0.38	4.3%	115	106.8	1.08×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/classified/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetHyperionRax$2.99$0.380.13x21m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLight$2.99$1.010.34x25m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCarlsson1$2.99$0.720.24x1h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted︻テحكـ 一💥$2.99$0.570.19x3h

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet︻テحكـ 一💥$2.99$0.380.13x3h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedwǒ xiǎng liáo liáo$2.99$0.720.24x4h

P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary(|)WXR(|)$2.99$1.530.51x4h

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet(|)WXR(|)$2.99$0.380.13x4h

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedd3str$2.99$1.160.39x5h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedAYGIT KOCAMAN$2.99$0.570.19x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 61.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$2.99	61.05%	176
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$2.99	62.20%	176
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$2.99	59.97%	176
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.99	58.17%	176
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$2.99	58.94%	176
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$2.99	58.64%	176
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$2.99	59.46%	176
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$2.99	58.64%	176
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$2.99	59.26%	176
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$2.99	59.36%	176

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 18.2%Legendary 4.6%#d32ee6 0.6%Classified 0.4%pink 1.8%#8847ff 8.0%restricted 20.0%Restricted 12.0%Mythical 14.0%violet 20.5%best hit —