CONTRABAND
A case on DROP.SKIN (gun_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.79
Advertised RTP
138.21%
EV $1.09 from 55 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.48%
1,530 openings, odds method
Variance
43.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 53
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 138.13% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (46.41% – 112.56%, 1,530 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,530 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/contraband/info, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 138.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.79 | 138.21% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.79 | 138.73% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.79 | 138.17% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.79 | 137.74% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.79 | 136.44% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.79 | 138.52% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.79 | 136.63% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.79 | 137.49% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.79 | 140.22% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.79 | 140.04% | 55 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 0.6%Mil Spec Grade 3.5%restricted 1.9%Mythical 0.7%mil spec 11.5%blue 0.2%industrial 0.2%Industrial Grade 6.4%#d32ee6 0.3%Industrial 0.6%#4b69ff 8.8%Consumer Grade 18.4%milspec 34.1%Rare 1.1%consumer 11.2%Uncommon 0.6%best hit —