DREAM
A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$229.00
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $203.55 from 52 items
Observed RTP, 30d
46.00%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/dream/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $229 | 88.89% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $229 | 90.01% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $229 | 90.39% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $229 | 91.77% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $229 | 88.32% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $229 | 90.70% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $229 | 90.49% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $229 | 91.34% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $229 | 91.99% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $229 | 92.88% | 57 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.8%covert 34.1%#ffd700 1.5%Covert 0.2%gold 9.2%Restricted 0.3%classified 12.8%restricted 3.4%sunny 0.5%epic 0.5%rare 0.7%extraordinary 30.0%covert knife 2.0%Immortal 4.0%best hit —