EMERALD
A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$6.10
Advertised RTP
110.72%
EV $6.75 from 48 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.31%
805 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 109.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (71.45% – 109.17%, 805 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 805 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/emerald/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 110.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $6.10 | 110.72% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $6.10 | 110.26% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $6.10 | 108.63% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.10 | 111.22% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $6.10 | 112.61% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $6.10 | 108.20% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $6.10 | 104.76% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $6.10 | 106.35% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $6.10 | 109.54% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $6.10 | 107.52% | 48 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 6.3%gold 0.2%covert 1.3%mil spec 1.7%Ancient 0.7%#d32ee6 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 13.5%restricted 29.7%Uncommon 0.5%Classified 0.5%pink 1.2%Mythical 5.8%Industrial Grade 0.6%milspec 4.3%consumer 4.3%Consumer Grade 9.9%#4b69ff 4.5%Restricted 9.1%#8847ff 4.4%Rare 1.3%best hit —