EMPRESS
A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
117.14%
EV $14.06 from 48 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.80%
446 openings, odds method
Variance
7.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 108.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (63.66% – 107.93%, 446 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 446 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/empress/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 117.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $12.00 | 117.14% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $12.00 | 107.60% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $12.00 | 108.06% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $12.00 | 108.29% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $12.00 | 110.00% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $12.00 | 109.10% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $12.00 | 101.73% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $12.00 | 103.55% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $12.00 | 110.23% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $12.00 | 104.70% | 48 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.2%covert 1.3%classified 7.3%milspec 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 9.5%#d32ee6 1.2%restricted 19.2%Legendary 4.9%#4b69ff 4.9%mil spec 0.5%Classified 0.5%industrial 17.0%pink 8.7%Consumer Grade 6.8%#d32ce6 4.4%#8847ff 4.1%violet 3.6%Mythical 1.0%best hit —