EVIL
A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$3.58
Advertised RTP
104.23%
EV $3.73 from 61 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.76%
675 openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 104.74% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (52.15% – 95.36%, 675 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 675 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/evil/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 104.23%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.58 | 104.23% | 61 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.58 | 104.83% | 61 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.58 | 103.11% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.58 | 105.45% | 61 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.58 | 106.70% | 61 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.58 | 105.77% | 61 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.58 | 104.06% | 61 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.58 | 103.98% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.58 | 104.62% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.58 | 105.64% | 61 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%restricted 34.8%classified 13.1%violet 11.3%pink 0.8%Mythical 3.8%#d32ee6 3.6%blue 3.0%#8847ff 9.9%Mil Spec 3.3%Consumer Grade 3.4%Restricted 5.2%industrial 3.4%milspec 3.4%best hit —