FALCHION
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$1.75
Advertised RTP
99.76%
EV $1.75 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.75%
188 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 188 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/falchion/info, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 99.76%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.75 | 99.76% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.75 | 95.96% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.75 | 102.55% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.75 | 103.19% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.75 | 101.76% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.75 | 102.30% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.75 | 98.85% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.75 | 98.76% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.75 | 101.07% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.75 | 102.44% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 6.2%classified 1.5%restricted 8.5%pink 0.5%Classified 0.3%Consumer Grade 7.5%#8847ff 0.9%mil spec 18.6%consumer 0.5%violet 11.9%#4b69ff 5.4%Mythical 5.5%Industrial Grade 5.7%blue 11.3%Rare 5.7%milspec 9.9%best hit —