FRACTURE
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.69
Advertised RTP
104.99%
EV $0.72 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.84%
879 openings, odds method
Variance
21.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 100.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (34.35% – 95.32%, 879 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 879 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/fracture/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 104.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.69 | 104.99% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.69 | 101.12% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.69 | 99.75% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.69 | 100.24% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.69 | 101.52% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.69 | 101.23% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.69 | 98.92% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.69 | 99.39% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.69 | 98.45% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.69 | 101.76% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 3.9%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.1%pink 0.1%classified 0.8%Restricted 4.7%Industrial Grade 0.6%Legendary 0.9%Mil Spec Grade 6.4%Consumer 0.3%#87c7ff 0.3%#8847ff 1.0%restricted 5.8%milspec 30.7%Consumer Grade 11.0%mil spec 9.5%Rare 15.0%#4b69ff 5.1%Common 3.9%best hit —