GAMMA-2
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$4.15
Advertised RTP
90.81%
EV $3.77 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.56%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/gamma-2/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.81%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.15 | 90.81% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.15 | 90.14% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.15 | 88.12% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.15 | 87.96% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.15 | 86.63% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.15 | 87.06% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.15 | 87.38% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.15 | 86.87% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.15 | 87.55% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.15 | 91.02% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 3.5%covert 0.1%red 0.5%restricted 12.0%covert knife 0.3%classified 2.8%Legendary 3.9%pink 0.6%Mythical 3.8%mil spec 11.6%industrial 1.4%Mil Spec Grade 7.0%Consumer Grade 10.4%consumer 3.7%#8847ff 9.5%Mil Spec 7.4%blue 7.5%Rare 3.7%Uncommon 3.7%violet 3.4%gray 3.2%best hit —