HORIZON
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
104.74%
EV $2.09 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.40%
87 openings, odds method
Variance
9.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 87 openings and 15.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/horizon/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 104.74%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.00 | 104.74% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $2.00 | 108.42% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.00 | 98.98% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.00 | 95.00% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $2.00 | 101.63% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $2.00 | 102.38% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $2.00 | 101.43% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $2.00 | 103.91% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $2.00 | 103.01% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.00 | 103.13% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Classified 0.1%Covert 0.1%#d32ce6 0.9%violet 1.0%classified 1.4%restricted 21.0%Restricted 12.5%pink 0.4%consumer 8.4%Consumer Grade 0.5%Industrial Grade 12.3%Uncommon 3.9%Mil Spec Grade 13.3%Mythical 3.9%mil spec 12.7%milspec 7.7%best hit —