JACKPOT-CASE
A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$319.99
Advertised RTP
119.57%
EV $382.62 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
29.03%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
11.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/jackpot-case/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 119.57%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $320 | 119.57% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $320 | 130.45% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $320 | 132.57% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $320 | 132.81% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $320 | 132.21% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $320 | 132.77% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $320 | 134.72% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $320 | 122.80% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $320 | 133.18% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $320 | 136.94% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 4.5%restricted 0.9%covert 15.4%rare 1.9%covert knife 46.2%classified 0.0%Covert 1.0%extraordinary 30.0%best hit —