LOTUS
A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$14.43
Advertised RTP
96.82%
EV $13.97 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.68%
66 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 66 openings and 10.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/lotus/info, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiednemytchenkos$14.43$10.230.71x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMaDggvp$14.43$14.230.99x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 96.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $14.43 | 96.82% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $14.43 | 99.12% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $14.43 | 97.67% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $14.43 | 98.62% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $14.43 | 100.23% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $14.43 | 99.58% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $14.43 | 98.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $14.43 | 106.57% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $14.43 | 102.18% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $14.43 | 104.05% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%sunny 0.3%classified 11.5%red 0.7%industrial 10.5%gold 0.8%mil spec 9.4%restricted 15.0%Covert 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 4.4%Restricted 0.4%blue 0.5%violet 5.0%#d32ee6 4.2%Mythical 14.5%#8847ff 9.0%Classified 4.5%Industrial 3.3%consumer 2.7%Mil Spec 2.2%best hit —