MAGIC

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

97.21%

EV $3.89 from 87 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.92%

758 openings, odds method

Variance

5.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.24%±34.76183 openings

7 days

74.70%±18.18665 openings

30 days

74.92%±17.00758 openings

since tracking started

74.92%±17.00758 openings

47.0%82.3%117.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 95.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (57.92% – 91.92%, 758 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	183	82.24%±34.8	−0.7σ	odds
7d	665	74.70%±18.2	−2.2σ	odds
30d	758	74.92%±17.0	−2.3σ	odds
All	758	74.92%±17.0	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values87 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,821	$504	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,141	$360	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,414	$252	1.0%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,040	$159	1.0%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,604	$142	1.0%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,050	$120	1.0%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,721	$107	1.0%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,048	$80.53	1.0%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,672	$65.75	1.0%	0	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,144	$44.97	1.0%	0	0.7	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,004	$39.49	1.0%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 852	$33.49	1.0%	0	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 825	$32.45	1.0%	1	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 822	$32.32	1.0%	0	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 813	$31.96	1.0%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 793	$31.20	1.0%	0	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 734	$28.87	1.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 724	$28.49	1.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 714	$28.07	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 697	$27.43	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 693	$27.26	1.0%	1	1.1	0.91×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 686	$26.99	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 639	$25.11	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 610	$24.00	1.0%	1	1.2	0.81×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 602	$23.68	1.0%	3	1.3	2.38×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 582	$22.91	1.0%	2	1.3	1.54×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 540	$21.22	1.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 532	$20.93	1.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 529	$20.81	1.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 514	$20.20	1.0%	3	1.5	2.03×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 511	$20.09	1.0%	1	1.5	0.67×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 720	$19.93	0.7%	2	1.1	1.90×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 709	$19.45	0.7%	2	1.1	1.87×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 694	$18.78	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 680	$18.15	0.7%	3	1.1	2.69×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 671	$17.75	0.7%	1	1.1	0.89×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 651	$16.87	0.7%	1	1.2	0.86×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 648	$16.73	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 595	$14.51	0.6%	1	1.3	0.78×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 592	$14.38	0.6%	3	1.3	2.34×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 579	$13.89	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 578	$13.84	0.6%	2	1.3	1.53×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 577	$13.81	0.6%	1	1.3	0.76×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 576	$13.76	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 576	$13.76	0.6%	1	1.3	0.76×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 574	$13.66	0.6%	1	1.3	0.76×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 570	$13.52	0.6%	1	1.3	0.75×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 567	$13.40	0.6%	1	1.3	0.75×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 567	$13.38	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 565	$13.30	0.6%	1	1.3	0.74×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 561	$13.17	0.6%	2	1.4	1.48×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 557	$13.02	0.6%	1	1.4	0.74×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 554	$12.88	0.6%	2	1.4	1.46×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 551	$12.79	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 547	$12.63	0.6%	2	1.4	1.44×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 547	$12.61	0.6%	2	1.4	1.44×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 538	$12.27	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 475	$9.98	0.5%	1	1.6	0.63×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 467	$9.70	0.5%	1	1.6	0.62×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 467	$9.69	0.5%	3	1.6	1.85×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 440	$8.77	0.5%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 363	$6.36	0.5%	3	2.1	1.44×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 327	$5.34	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 313	$4.99	0.4%	3	2.4	1.24×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 313	$4.97	0.4%	2	2.4	0.83×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 309	$4.88	0.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 300	$4.62	0.4%	1	2.5	0.40×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 282	$4.18	0.4%	3	2.7	1.12×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 22	$3.80	4.5%	27	34.9	0.77×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$3.47	4.3%	41	36.1	1.14×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$3.40	4.2%	0	36.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$3.34	4.1%	0	36.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$3.24	4.1%	40	37.0	1.08×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$2.72	3.6%	44	38.7	1.14×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$2.36	3.2%	56	39.6	1.41×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$2.29	3.1%	34	39.7	0.86×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$2.26	3.0%	36	39.8	0.90×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$1.97	2.7%	30	40.0	0.75×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 19	$1.53	2.0%	37	39.2	0.94×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$1.47	1.9%	36	39.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.30	1.7%	42	37.9	1.11×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.11	1.4%	31	36.0	0.86×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$0.92	1.0%	40	33.3	1.20×
P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.78	0.8%	32	30.3	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 27	$0.70	0.7%	29	28.3	1.02×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$0.67	0.6%	37	27.6	1.34×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$0.56	0.5%	22	24.3	0.91×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/magic/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedrzkai$4.00$3.470.87x50m

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedrzkai$4.00$1.970.49x52m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSw1tch$4.00$1.300.33x1h

AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specnemytchenkos$4.00$0.670.17x2h

AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictednemytchenkos$4.00$2.360.59x2h

AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffnemytchenkos$4.00$2.720.68x2h

AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedzoyt4H'$4.00$2.360.59x3h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedzoyt4H'$4.00$0.920.23x3h

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalzoyt4H'$4.00$3.240.81x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.21%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$4.00	97.21%	87
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$4.00	93.29%	87
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$4.00	98.09%	87
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.00	97.67%	87
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$4.00	94.72%	87
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$4.00	95.28%	87
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$4.00	93.62%	87
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$4.00	93.35%	87
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$4.00	94.09%	87
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$4.00	95.49%	87

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 20.7%Legendary 5.5%red 0.0%pink 3.4%Classified 0.1%#d32ee6 5.1%Mythical 5.2%#8847ff 5.4%restricted 37.8%blue 5.2%milspec 4.0%Rare 3.7%mil spec 3.6%best hit —