MONSTER
A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$1.90
Advertised RTP
102.27%
EV $1.94 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.93%
4,526 openings, odds method
Variance
11.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 107.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (65.26% – 86.59%, 4,526 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,527 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/monster/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 102.27%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.90 | 102.27% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.90 | 106.46% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.90 | 111.32% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.90 | 107.10% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.90 | 106.04% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.90 | 106.34% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.90 | 105.16% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.90 | 104.54% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.90 | 105.14% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.90 | 106.10% | 55 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%restricted 10.5%Ancient 0.2%classified 2.8%Mythical 14.5%#d32ee6 0.9%pink 1.0%#8847ff 16.0%violet 18.0%Legendary 0.0%Restricted 12.0%milspec 23.5%best hit —