NIGHTMARE

A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$0.40

Advertised RTP

156.27%

EV $0.63 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.83%

15.9K openings, odds method

Variance

115.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 51

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72.61%±39.512,750 openings

7 days

77.69%±18.0615.1K openings

30 days

77.83%±17.6915.9K openings

since tracking started

77.83%±17.6915.9K openings

32.5%98.3%164.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 163.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (60.14% – 95.52%, 15,870 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,750	72.61%±39.5	−3.9σ	odds
7d	15.1K	77.69%±18.1	−9.2σ	odds
30d	15.9K	77.83%±17.7	−9.5σ	odds
All	15.9K	77.83%±17.7	−9.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,009	$124	4.9%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,986	$123	4.9%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,865	$119	4.9%	0	4.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,103	$64.96	4.9%	0	7.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,942	$59.98	4.9%	0	8.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,870	$57.76	4.9%	0	8.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 446	$13.76	4.9%	0	35.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 439	$13.57	4.9%	0	36.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 431	$13.30	4.9%	0	36.9	0.00×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 361	$11.14	4.9%	4	44.0	0.09×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 132	$4.08	4.9%	103	120.1	0.86×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 74	$2.29	4.9%	111	213.8	0.52×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 74	$2.29	4.9%	251	213.8	1.17×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 954	$1.92	0.3%	60	16.6	3.61×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 760	$1.53	0.3%	16	20.9	0.77×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 747	$1.50	0.3%	30	21.2	1.41×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 747	$1.50	0.3%	25	21.2	1.18×
P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 735	$1.47	0.3%	21	21.6	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 684	$1.37	0.3%	32	23.2	1.38×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 672	$1.35	0.3%	23	23.6	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 665	$1.34	0.3%	30	23.9	1.26×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 653	$1.31	0.3%	26	24.3	1.07×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 487	$0.98	0.3%	28	32.6	0.86×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 477	$0.96	0.3%	32	33.3	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 459	$0.92	0.3%	38	34.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 408	$0.82	0.3%	34	38.9	0.87×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 399	$0.80	0.3%	45	39.8	1.13×
MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 396	$0.79	0.3%	44	40.1	1.10×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 352	$0.71	0.3%	44	45.2	0.97×
M249 \| Deep Relief (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 335	$0.67	0.3%	42	47.4	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 304	$0.61	0.3%	49	52.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 301	$0.60	0.3%	66	52.7	1.25×
M249 \| Spectre (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 296	$0.59	0.3%	52	53.6	0.97×
Nova \| Wild Six (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 296	$0.59	0.3%	77	53.7	1.44×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 276	$0.55	0.3%	52	57.5	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 258	$0.52	0.3%	60	61.6	0.97×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 247	$0.50	0.3%	72	64.1	1.12×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 239	$0.48	0.3%	62	66.6	0.93×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 226	$0.45	0.3%	67	70.3	0.95×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 226	$0.45	0.3%	60	70.3	0.85×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 216	$0.43	0.3%	88	73.6	1.20×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 213	$0.43	0.3%	68	74.4	0.91×
M249 \| Spectre (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 213	$0.43	0.3%	95	74.4	1.28×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 212	$0.43	0.3%	109	74.8	1.46×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 203	$0.41	0.3%	285	78.1	3.65×
M249 \| Spectre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 201	$0.40	0.3%	62	79.0	0.78×
P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.39	0.6%	113	158.8	0.71×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	—	$0.39	0.0%	84	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$0.36	0.6%	224	158.8	1.41×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$0.36	1.1%	424	317.5	1.34×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.36	1.1%	224	317.5	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.35	1.7%	213	476.3	0.45×
P90 \| Facility Negative (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.33	1.6%	555	476.3	1.17×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.30	1.9%	665	635.0	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$0.28	2.2%	636	793.8	0.80×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.28	1.8%	585	635.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.21	1.7%	945	793.8	1.19×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 17	$0.19	1.8%	757	952.6	0.79×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.19	1.8%	946	952.6	0.99×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$0.16	1.8%	968	1111.3	0.87×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.14	1.6%	1,049	1111.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.09	1.2%	1,219	1270.1	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.09	1.2%	1,740	1270.1	1.37×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	13.5%	$0.06	1.4%	0	2143.3	0.00×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/nightmare/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBOMBEIRO#0401$0.40$2.295.73xnow

Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specBOMBEIRO#0401$0.40$0.431.08x27s

MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil specreku$0.40$0.411.02x36s

Five-SeveN | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecTriple-A$0.40$0.360.89x53s

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecBOMBEIRO#0401$0.40$0.060.16x1m

MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · RareDFSAFSDFSDFDSFSDFSD$0.40$0.090.22x1m

P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBOMBEIRO#0401$0.40$2.295.73x1m

P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMrX$0.40$2.295.73x2m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffjarek$0.40$0.190.47x5m

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecjarek$0.40$0.060.16x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 156.27%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$0.40	156.27%	64
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$0.40	150.47%	64
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.40	150.36%	64
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.40	152.29%	64
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$0.40	150.18%	64
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$0.40	183.52%	64
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$0.40	182.39%	64
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$0.40	181.68%	64
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$0.40	186.15%	64
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$0.40	185.72%	64

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%red 0.1%pink 0.5%classified 1.6%blue 7.3%#8847ff 1.9%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%restricted 2.2%Legendary 0.1%violet 0.3%Mythical 0.1%mil spec 6.0%Rare 16.5%milspec 36.5%#4b69ff 18.8%Mil Spec 6.0%best hit —