PHOENIX
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.75
Advertised RTP
123.29%
EV $0.92 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.58%
3,732 openings, odds method
Variance
102.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 42
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 120.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (33.98% – 99.19%, 3,732 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,732 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/phoenix/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 123.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.75 | 123.29% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.75 | 120.01% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.75 | 120.69% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.75 | 120.74% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.75 | 121.21% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.75 | 120.67% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.75 | 118.09% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.75 | 119.88% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.75 | 119.49% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.75 | 123.45% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 0.6%Mil Spec Grade 0.4%restricted 2.4%Classified 1.5%Mythical 0.7%mil spec 21.1%Restricted 2.0%Industrial Grade 0.8%violet 1.0%#4b69ff 1.7%milspec 31.5%#87c7ff 16.0%industrial 20.0%best hit —