POSEIDON
A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$12.46
Advertised RTP
114.77%
EV $14.30 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.08%
216 openings, odds method
Variance
18.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/poseidon/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 114.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $12.46 | 114.77% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $12.46 | 114.54% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $12.46 | 114.38% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $12.46 | 114.11% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $12.46 | 113.97% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $12.46 | 112.34% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $12.46 | 111.70% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $12.46 | 111.81% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $12.46 | 112.40% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $12.46 | 112.98% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 31.0%#ffd700 0.1%restricted 20.6%covert 3.6%epic 0.1%Ancient 0.3%red 0.3%extraordinary 0.4%#d32ee6 1.6%pink 3.9%#8847ff 17.0%Classified 9.0%milspec 12.0%best hit —