PRISMA
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$1.12
Advertised RTP
86.38%
EV $0.97 from 48 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.02%
294 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 294 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/prisma/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.12 | 86.38% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.12 | 87.96% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.12 | 86.58% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.12 | 86.12% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.12 | 85.74% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.12 | 81.71% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.12 | 86.86% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.12 | 86.86% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.12 | 85.16% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.12 | 84.23% | 48 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 6.3%Covert 0.0%Industrial Grade 0.1%restricted 11.9%Classified 0.5%Mythical 5.9%Mil Spec Grade 5.5%classified 0.3%Restricted 0.5%mil spec 20.1%Consumer Grade 13.7%Rare 0.5%milspec 25.8%#4b69ff 4.5%violet 4.5%best hit —