RACOON-FARM
A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
98.59%
EV $0.44 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.84%
13K openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 98.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (69.92% – 79.77%, 13,014 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/racoon-farm/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 98.59%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.45 | 98.59% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.45 | 98.90% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.45 | 99.30% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.45 | 101.20% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.45 | 93.74% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.45 | 97.61% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.45 | 100.91% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.45 | 101.68% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.45 | 98.75% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.45 | 101.50% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 8.8%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%Mil Spec 0.1%#d32ee6 0.4%violet 1.0%Consumer Grade 4.8%Uncommon 0.6%industrial 0.3%milspec 18.4%#8847ff 1.8%Restricted 0.4%#4b69ff 5.0%Rare 5.0%Common 7.1%restricted 2.6%mil spec 28.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.7%blue 10.5%light blue 4.4%best hit —