RECOIL
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
111.09%
EV $0.44 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.38%
1,731 openings, odds method
Variance
21.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 107.57% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (55.71% – 97.04%, 1,731 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,732 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/recoil/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 111.09%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.40 | 111.09% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.40 | 115.33% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.40 | 112.58% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.40 | 105.41% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.40 | 100.59% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.40 | 106.86% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.40 | 105.11% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.40 | 107.24% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.40 | 105.78% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.40 | 105.06% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 0.4%covert 0.1%classified 0.1%#8847ff 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 8.9%Industrial Grade 0.3%industrial 0.4%Mythical 1.0%restricted 0.5%violet 1.1%blue 5.2%Restricted 0.3%Common 10.4%mil spec 15.3%#4b69ff 10.2%Consumer Grade 10.3%Rare 4.9%milspec 25.2%grey 5.0%best hit —