SHATTERED-WEB
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$4.99
Advertised RTP
101.79%
EV $5.08 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.77%
141 openings, odds method
Variance
15.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/shattered-web/info, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 101.79%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.99 | 101.79% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.99 | 101.38% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.99 | 102.72% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.99 | 102.52% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.99 | 102.32% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.99 | 101.13% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.99 | 99.90% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.99 | 100.85% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.99 | 96.94% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.99 | 97.94% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%Covert 0.0%covert knife 0.3%classified 2.8%Ancient 0.1%Restricted 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.5%mil spec 13.4%Classified 0.5%restricted 16.1%#8847ff 6.3%Mil Spec Grade 21.9%Mythical 5.2%violet 5.9%Rare 8.9%milspec 12.8%#4b69ff 3.8%best hit —