SPECTRUM
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$5.75
Advertised RTP
115.12%
EV $6.62 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.99%
88 openings, odds method
Variance
43.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 88 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/spectrum/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 115.12%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.75 | 115.12% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.75 | 116.71% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.75 | 112.95% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.75 | 112.53% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.75 | 111.78% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.75 | 112.10% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.75 | 111.48% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.75 | 111.71% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.75 | 115.93% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.75 | 115.17% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 9.3%Covert 0.0%covert 1.5%classified 7.4%Classified 0.6%industrial 0.2%restricted 11.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.7%mil spec 6.2%#d32ee6 0.4%Legendary 0.4%#4b69ff 0.9%Restricted 9.7%Consumer Grade 5.0%Common 4.4%Mil Spec 4.6%milspec 5.5%Industrial Grade 9.2%Mythical 4.7%#8847ff 4.7%violet 8.3%blue 1.3%best hit —